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Carbon Market Insights

Data-driven analysis of voluntary carbon markets — deal flow, policy updates, project deep dives, and AI-powered market intelligence.

PolicyRegulatory

Article 6.4 Integrity Crisis: First UN Credit Issuance Faces Over-Crediting Claims

The first Paris Agreement credits are live, but analysis suggests a 40% haircut on legacy CDM projects isn't enough to fix quality issues.

The UN's first Article 6.4 issuance of 60,000 credits sparks controversy. Analysis warns of 26x over-crediting despite new methodology adjustments.

4 min read
Deal FlowMarket Update

Microsoft's 1.8M-Tonne Sierra Leone Offtake Signals VCM Flight to Scarcity

Why African ARR forward contracts are repricing quality and stranding legacy spot credits

Microsoft's 15-year 1.8M-tonne Sierra Leone offtake signals a VCM regime shift as high-integrity African ARR supply tightens and legacy spot credits lose relevance.

3 min read
Case StudyREDD+IntegrityRisk

Case Study: Kariba REDD+ (VCS902) — How AI Forensics Tracks the Warning Signs

15.2 million excess credits, a registry withdrawal, and months of warning signals

The Kariba REDD+ Project was one of the biggest carbon credit scandals in history. VCM.fyi's AI forensic scanning identified 7 critical findings across integrity, regulatory, social, and market categories.

8 min read
Case StudyREDD+IndonesiaArticle 6

Case Study: Katingan Peatland (VCS1477) — From Regulatory Freeze to AA Rating

How continuous intelligence tracking revealed a recovery story

While Kariba deteriorated, Katingan told the opposite story: a top-rated project at depressed prices during Indonesia's regulatory uncertainty, with steadily improving fundamentals.

7 min read
Deep DiveBuyersRiskQuality

The Defensibility Question: Carbon Credit Buying in the Age of Accountability

What the data reveals about buyer behavior, portfolio risk, and the emerging quality tier in 2025

The voluntary carbon market in 2025 tells two stories. In one, transaction volumes have contracted 25% from their 2023 peak. In the other, a quality tier is emerging around the Integrity Council's Core Carbon Principles.

15 min read
Deep DiveSoil CarbonPrepurchaseSmallholder

Inside Mirova's $30M Soil Carbon Prepurchase: What Project Developers Need to Know

How Varaha's 18-Month Due Diligence and Early Farmer Onboarding Secured the Largest Soil Carbon Investment Ever

In November 2025, Mirova closed a $30 million prepurchase agreement with Varaha for carbon credits from a regenerative agriculture project in Northwest India.

12 min read
Market UpdateCOP30Article 6Compliance

COP30 Belém: Paris Agreement Carbon Market Goes Live, UN Retires Kyoto CDM & Open Coalition Forms

Week of November 21, 2025

The two weeks spanning November 7-21, 2025, mark the most significant structural shift in carbon markets since the Paris Agreement was signed.

17 min read
Market UpdateSBTiCorporateEU Policy

SBTi Revises Net-Zero Criteria, UN Eases Permanence Rules & Google's 200K Tonne Amazon Deal

Week of November 6, 2025

The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) released a draft Corporate Net-Zero Standard (Version 2) for public consultation on November 6.

11 min read
Market UpdateArticle 6Compliance

Frontier's $41M BECCS Deal, Singapore's 10th Article 6 Agreement & Market Oversupply Signals

Week of October 10, 2025

An oversupply of credits has pressured prices, especially for nature-based offsets.

11 min read
Market UpdateBrazilPolicyVerra

Climate Week NYC: Barclays' First CDR Deal, Brazil's Carbon Club & Verra Acts on Kariba

Week of September 25, 2025

Barclays inked its first major carbon dioxide removal (CDR) purchase agreement this week.

5 min read
Market Update

Xpansiv-Korea Exchange Partnership Launches & Spain's First Regional VCM Takes Shape

Week of September 19, 2025

Xpansiv and Korea Exchange (KRX) officially signed a strategic agreement to launch South Korea's new voluntary carbon market.

4 min read
Market UpdateICVCMStandardsSBTi

ICVCM Approves Biochar & IFM Methodologies, SBTi Updates Net-Zero Criteria & Record Retirements

Week of August 28, 2025

ICVCM delivered landmark approvals: First-ever biochar and enhanced IFM methodologies earned CCP labels.

4 min read
Market UpdateICVCMStandardsBrazil

Standard Chartered's $150M Amazon Deal, ICVCM Excludes 32% of Market & Frontier's $41M BECCS Breakthrough

Week of August 8, 2025

Standard Chartered and the Brazilian state of Acre announced a multi-year deal to sell up to 5 million jurisdictional Amazon rainforest credits.

6 min read
Market UpdateVerraRegistry

Third-Party Auditing Crisis Threatens VCM Foundation & Historic $210M Non-Recourse Financing

Week of August 1, 2025

A groundbreaking study published in Science revealed that 64% of Verra's certified auditors have signed off on problematic carbon projects.

5 min read
Market UpdateICVCMStandards

$210M Forest Financing Breakthrough & Nature Credits Double as Corporate Confidence Wavers

Week of July 25, 2025

Clear, aligned, and stable rules across regulatory regimes.

8 min read
Market Update

The Big Beautiful Bill: How New Federal Policy Transforms Carbon Markets

Week of July 4, 2025

The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' signed into law this week fundamentally reshapes the voluntary carbon market landscape.

6 min read
Market UpdateArticle 6ComplianceVerra

Verra's Version 5 Consultation, Saudi Arabia's 30M Tonne Commitment & Article 6 Breakthrough

Week of June 27, 2025

Verra launched its final consultation for VCS Version 5, proposing game-changing updates.

2 min read
Market UpdateREDD+ForestBrazil

Market Tightens as Quality Standards Drive Transformation

Week of June 13, 2025

The voluntary carbon market is experiencing a historic shift. For the first time, we're approaching 'negative net issuance'.

5 min read

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